German Commercial Property Market in Downturn as Prices Plunge 9.6% in Q1

Germany’s commercial property market, once a booming sector, is facing a significant downturn. According to data released by the VDP banking association, prices fell by a steep 9.6% in the first quarter (Q1) of 2024 compared to the same period last year. This marks a sharp decline and suggests a potential cooling of the market after years of steady growth.

Analysts attribute the drop to a confluence of factors, including rising interest rates, inflationary pressures, and ongoing economic uncertainty. These factors have made borrowing more expensive and dampened investor confidence, leading to a decrease in demand for commercial properties.

The decline was observed across all major property types, with office spaces experiencing the most significant drop at 12%. Retail and industrial properties also saw price decreases, albeit at a slightly less severe rate.

Despite the Q1 slump, experts believe the German commercial property market has strong fundamentals and is likely to rebound in the coming quarters. However, the short-term outlook remains uncertain, and investors are advised to proceed with caution and carefully consider market conditions before making any investment decisions.

The VDP banking association, which represents lenders in Germany, predicts that commercial property prices will continue to decline in the coming quarters, with a potential bottoming out only expected sometime next year. This prediction is based on the ongoing headwinds facing the market, such as high borrowing costs.

Germany’s commercial property sector has been a lucrative investment option for years, fueled by low-interest rates. However, the recent economic shifts have significantly impacted the market, raising concerns about its future trajectory.


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